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☆ Lock in attractive real yields with this inflation-protected investment, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors can lock in some juicy real yields with Treasury inflation-protected securities, according to UBS. "The result has been rising real yields further out the curve, offering the opportunity to lock in attractive real yields ahead of expected falling nominal yields later this year," she added. Treasury yields are expected to decline when the Federal Reserve starts reducing the fed funds rate. Nominal yields have been rising as the market reassesses those interest rate expectations. "Our expectation of declining nominal yields in the second half of the year will be a tailwind to performance," she said.

Persons: Leslie Falconio Organizations: Treasury, UBS, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department Locations: UBS Americas

☆ Mortgage-backed securities offer high-quality income and are relatively cheap, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors looking for high-quality income, as well as a bargain, should turn to agency mortgage-backed securities, according to UBS. Agency MBS are debt obligations backed by the government and are issued by agencies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. However, agency MBS lagged their higher-quality counterparts because they are highly correlated to interest rate volatility, she said. As gross domestic product slowly trends lower, the market will become more comfortable with the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates, Falconio said. Banks, which have been investing excess deposits in Treasurys, will be among those turning to agency MBS, Falconio said.

Persons: Leslie Falconio, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Falconio, Janus Henderson, Banks Organizations: UBS, CNBC, Agency MBS, Federal Reserve, MBS, SEC, Securities ETF Locations: UBS Americas, Treasurys

☆ Where Will CD Rates Go in 2024?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Mallika Mitra | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +7 min

Interest rates that banks pay on certificates of deposit are closely tied to short-term interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Now that the inflation rate has come down, many investing pros see two possible outcomes for interest rates in 2024: one in which the Fed has little choice but to cut rates steeply, and another in which the Fed can cut rates modestly. Either scenario would eventually result in CD rates decreasing, since rates on CDs tend to quickly follow Fed moves. Where will CD rates go in 2024? But if investors are correct that rate cuts are coming, those high CD rates will come down over the next few years, too.

Persons: Mallika Mitra, “, ”, Lili Vasileff, Leslie Falconio, “ They’re, you’ll, you’re, Jeremy Keil, ” Keil, Keil, “ You’ve, Ally Organizations: Federal Reserve, UBS, Wall, Federal Credit Union, Minnequa Works Credit Union, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, National Credit Union Administration Locations: Greenwich, Conn, U.S, Milwaukee, APYs

Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia

The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson

"It's not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. While higher interest rates are good news for savers, businesses and consumers have become used to paying nothing for money over the past 15 years. Reuters GraphicsREADING YIELDSA market-based Fed model that breaks down the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides further insight into investors' thinking. This rise in term premium, which spent much of the last decade below zero, reflects high levels of uncertainty about economic outlook and monetary policy, investors said. While the market appears to be confident in its belief in the end of the era of zero interest rates, it is far less so about the economy's actual likely path.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Greg Whiteley, It's, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Adrian, Crump, Emanuel Moench, John Velis, Leslie Falconio, BNY's Velis, Velis, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver 私 Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, York Fed, Minneapolis, Moench, Frankfurt School of Finance, Management, Americas, BNY Mellon, UBS Global Wealth Management, San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington ,, U.S, DoubleLine, San Francisco

☆ Here's why it's time to buy this inflation-protected investment, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Wall Street firm upgraded the 5-year securities, known as TIPS, to most preferred from neutral on Wednesday. The yield on 5-year TIPS hit 2.24% on Wednesday, the highest real yield the sector has seen in over 15 years, said Leslie Falconio, head of fixed income strategy in UBS Americas' chief investment office. TIPS yields account for inflation, but Treasury yields are nominal and don't take inflation into account. "While investors were confronted with historically high inflation, TIPS proved to be a disappointment as the interest rate component dramatically underperformed," she said. Those higher real yields also have been a contributor to rising nominal yields, she said.

Persons: Leslie Falconio, Falconio, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve Locations: UBS Americas

☆ Investors are betting that rate cuts are coming early next year. Here's what market experts are urging you do right now to cash in when rates do fall.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

10-year Treasury yields are surging as the economy stays hot. For the first time since 2007, 10-year yields rose above 4.3% on Thursday after seeing a 31% surge since April. If or when that eventually happens, Treasury yields are likely to follow, presenting those who hold the assets with an opportunity. Bond yields fall when demand for the assets rise, pushing up their price. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees 10-year rates averaging 3.7% in the years ahead.

Persons: Gautam Khanna, Jason Draho, Lawrence Gillium, Craig Brothers, Brothers, Leslie Falconio, David Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Wall, Insight Investment, UBS Global Wealth, LPL, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Morgan Asset Management, Monopoly, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ The 'time has come' for mortgaged-backed securities, says UBS. Here's what to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The AAA asset class in agency MBS can bring in a yield ranging as high as 5.5% to 6%, said Leslie Falconio, head of fixed income strategy in UBS Americas' chief investment office. "Agency mortgages are the cheapest part, on a risk-adjusted basis certainly, in the entire fixed income market." She specifically likes agency MBS and expects them to "materially outperform" in the second half of the year. Luis Alvarado, a fixed income strategist at Wells Fargo, also looks at MBS as a possible replacement for some investment-grade corporate debt in a fixed income portfolio. UBS' Falconio is also awaiting a better entry point for CMBS, as well as nonagency MBS.

Persons: Leslie Falconio, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Falconio, Luis Alvarado, He's, Alvarado, Wells, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MBS, AAA, UBS, Agency, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: UBS Americas, Wells Fargo

☆ Preferred securities are yielding nearly 7%. After a turbulent first half, here's why it may be time to jump in
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

After a rocky first half of the year, it may be a good time to buy preferred securities. The ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Securities index, which tracks the performance of fixed-rate preferred securities, has a yield-to-worst of 6.7%. While many preferreds have fixed rates, some have floating rates or fixed-to-floating rates that switch from fixed to floating after a certain period of time. In 2022, the ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Securities index lost 19%. Its top-rated funds include Global X US Preferred ETF and iShares Preferred & Income Securities ETF.

Persons: Leslie Falconio, Michael Youngworth, Youngworth, Falconio, Bonds, JR Humphreys, Humphreys, Humphrey, America's Youngworth, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, UBS, BofA Securities, Securities, Brock Investment Advisors, ICE, JPMorgan, American Equity Investment, Western Alliance, Bank, America's, preferreds . Bank of America, Global, US, iShares, Income Securities Locations: preferreds, preferreds .

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